Let’s face it, the Albanese government’s ‘Future Made in Australia’ policy was always just a gimmick. With its obvious Trumpian tones, the aim of the announcement was to convince low-information voters that the government had a plan to revive manufacturing in this country.

The reality is very different. Instead of copious investment dollars, mainly private, piling into new manufacturing ventures, several already established manufacturing plants have either closed or are heading for the exit gate.

And the irony here is that other Albanese policies, including high electricity costs and the damaging ‘Safeguard Mechanism’ (which forces high-emitters to reduce their emissions lest they face a substantial financial penalty), are making life even harder for these outfits in the context of a competitive world environment.

Let’s not forget here that the Australian economy has one of the lowest shares of manufacturing in its total output – around five per cent – of the developed economies in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. In the 1990s, the proportion was close to ten per cent. It’s been a rapid downhill run over the past several decades.

The Whyalla steel mill is on its knees, operating under administration. To be sure, the former owner and consummate green rent-seeker, Sanjeev Gupta, made ridiculous promises about the mill’s future while essentially running it into the ground. It turned out that there had been wildly insufficient maintenance and the plant had inadequate supplies of necessary consumables.

The owners of the Tomago aluminium smelter in the Hunter Valley have also foreshadowed an uncertain future for the plant, given the high cost of power and the infeasibility of running a 24/7 plant on renewable energy. Both the New South Wales and federal governments are currently doing backroom deals to ensure that the plant stays in business. Massive subsidies will likely be handed out, but we won’t quite know how much because of the ‘commercial-in-confidence’ excuse.

We now learn that the Nyrstar smelters in Port Pirie, South Australia (multi-metals), and Tasmania (zinc) are operating at substantial losses and both their futures are also uncertain. The owner has made substantial investments to comply with tighter government environmental regulations. But at this stage it’s not clear how these smelters can compete with the highly efficient operations in China.

Bear in mind that Chinese smelters/refineries have the advantage of cheap power – mainly coal-fired – and cheap labour.  Environmental standards are also relatively lax. The bigger picture here is that China is in fact cornering the market in processing ore bodies. It’s not just Australia that stands to lose out.

It’s quickly becoming the case of ‘Saving Made in Australia’ rather than ‘Future Made in Australia’. Unless the key foundational supports for manufacturing are put in place – affordable and reliable power, flexible workforce arrangements, appropriate regulatory controls – there will be more stories about large manufacturing plants in Australia going backwards. Inevitably, some of them will close. After all, Quenos, that operated petrochemical plants in Sydney and Melbourne for decades, is in the process of shutting its doors. And the last company making architectural glass panels has already closed.

None of this seems to convince Albo or his lieutenants that the ‘Future Made in Australia’ policy is a total crock.

Without an appropriate tender process, one quantum computing company was simply awarded one billion dollars from taxpayers. The owners, who live in Silicon Valley, may end up billionaires, although there is a real possibility that the project will come to naught. A few jobs in Brisbane are in the offing, but that pay-off seems very small for the huge dollar outlay.

We haven’t heard much about the solar panel manufacturing plant in the Hunter Valley that will be highly subsidised by the taxpayer. With China overwhelmingly the dominant producer of solar panels and the market being oversupplied, it’s close to impossible to see this proposed plant being a goer. But bear in mind, the announcement is often the policy, rather than the reality.

Any sensible person who has been following developments in the green hydrogen space knows that it’s a complete dog of an investment, including in Australia. Yet, B1, our Climate Change and Energy Minister, Chris Bowen, continues to bang on about its potential.

This is notwithstanding the fact that over 90 per cent of the mooted green hydrogen projects have now been ditched. Too expensive, too technically difficult, no customers.  Even if the renewable energy required were provided free of charge, these projects still would not get up.

In a last desperate bid to show us doubters that green hydrogen has a future, Bowen has entered into an arrangement with the mining services company, Orica, to produce green hydrogen. The company manufactures explosives used in the mining industry. Their plant is located on Kooragang Island in New South Wales.

Bear in mind, the energy company Origin had previously been a partner in the project, but has since withdrawn, citing technical and commercial obstacles.

But Bowen’s idea is that if you are prepared to throw enough taxpayer dollars at anything, then a project can go ahead. This is the case in this instance. The taxpayer will be stumping up between 80 and 90 per cent of the investment dollars required. And this will buy a tiny 50-megawatt electrolyser.  The expectation is that the resulting hydrogen will displace less than ten per cent of the natural gas that the plant currently uses. Big deal, I say.

But Bowen’s aim here is to utter the phrase: so, there. Using over $400 million of taxpayer money for such a trivial outcome won’t worry him. Indeed, he may even call it a demonstration project – a demonstration of his wise insights.

In the meantime, we must contend with the ludicrous proposals of the Superpower Institute under the guidance of those ageing economic gurus, Rod Sims and Ross Garnaut. Let’s just hope there are some bureaucrats who can recognise a con when they see it.

The idea that Australia can become some sort of world leader in producing green iron – which requires green hydrogen – and that the world will rush to our shores to purchase it is completely bonkers. Apart from the fact that there’s unlikely to be much demand for green iron for decades, if ever, China is unlikely to give up the margins to Australia. Given their superiority in manufacturing, the green iron will be produced in that country, using iron ore exported from Australia and elsewhere.

Now you might take the view that whether we have a manufacturing industry is inconsequential. But given the strategic importance of many parts of manufacturing, it’s surely short-sighted to allow what we have, to rapidly disappear.

As for new investment, unless the federal government ministers understand the key features – cheap power, regulation, industrial relations, tax and the like – that facilitate new manufacturing plants, the ‘Future Made in Australia’ should be regarded as a complete joke. It’s essentially a racket for eager rent-seekers.