Half an inch. Just half an inch. If the bullet had been a centimetre or so to the shooter’s right we would have had a political assassination. Instead, shooting from 130 metres or so, the sniper only hit former president Trump’s ear. A bit less wind and Trump is dead. A bit more wind and Trump is dead. If Trump hadn’t happened just then to incline his head, by chance, he was dead. So luck. The Fates. Pure chance. Call it what you will, that is what stood between today’s America and political chaos.

First thing to note is that very experienced security and military sniper experts are saying that there were major, major security lapses here. The rooftop used was a pretty obvious place from which to take a shot. Where were the police and Secret Service agents up there securing the location?  Where were the drones? One former US military sniper officer basically described this as big ticket incompetence. Or worse. Add to that the fact that there are reports that the Secret Service people guarding Trump have been asking for some time for a lot more men and resources. But Biden’s administration turned them down. Repeatedly. And note too that people in the crowd had been shouting about the sniper on the roof well before he took the shots. So pretty major incompetence is the best we can say about the security here.

Second point. I don’t think too many non-Democrat voters are going to take remotely seriously the idea that the FBI and the Biden Department of Justice should be undertaking the investigation into this assassination attempt. Any conclusions they purport to make will be seen in the light of the fact it was the FBI that helped run the whole Russia collusion scam, including making dishonest FISA court applications. And it was the FBI that raided Trump’s home of Mar-A-Lago like some sort of mafia chieftain ‘invite in all the TV networks to watch’ shakedown while nicely inviting Joe Biden’s lawyers in privately to deliver materials when the same ‘holding unauthorised materials’ offences were in play against the Democrat. Likewise, it was top intelligence people, including former FBI agents, who were co-signatories to that now notorious 51-signee letter claiming that the Hunter Biden laptop ‘had all the hallmarks of Russian disinformation’. That letter may well have swayed the 2020 election, at least if you believe polls that showed that if voters had known the laptop was real, enough would have shifted to Trump to alter the outcome. Remember, the FBI had had the Hunter laptop since 2019 and they knew it was the real deal. Meanwhile the Biden Department of Justice is in up to its neck with the whole lawfare saga against former president Trump. There is no historical precedent for the number three person at the DoJ leaving to take up a helping role with a mere city district attorney – sort of like an Australian national cricketer quitting to go play for his high school – to try to convict someone for a wholly novel charge. Well, not until the Trump Alvin Bragg Manhattan case that was a flat-out legal disgrace but got the desired conviction. (Full disclosure:  I think these Trump convictions will all be thrown out on appeal but not till after the election, which was the whole aim.) But the point here is that neither Trump nor the Republican party nor Republican party members generally are going to see the Biden DoJ as honest brokers into investigating this assassination attempt.  You can’t at the same time be trying to put former president Trump in prison for the rest of his life and also be running an impartial, fair investigation into the assassination attempt on his life. Attorney General Merrick Garland, FBI Director Christopher Wray and probably Secret Service Director Kim Cheatle all need to step down from any role in this investigation. (I say they should, not that they will.  We know they won’t.)

Third point. Did you notice all the riots across Republican parts of the US the night of the assassination attempt? All those people on the streets burning down shops and looting and setting fires to protest what had happened to president Trump. Anyone? No.  Me neither. Perhaps there’s a bit of political asymmetry when it comes to riots. Just a mooted thought.

Fourthly, actions have consequences. If the Democrats and the Biden-Harris campaigns go all in on telling their base that Trump is Hitler (there are plenty of examples of this), that he is a dictator (more examples again, even though Trump when President was nothing of the kind and never remotely weaponised the DoJ against Democrats), and that he is a threat to democracy (a never-ending theme of the Dems) then it cannot come as a total shock that someone might take that seriously. In fact, wouldn’t assassinating an actual Hitler be the right thing to do? Remember when the lefty philosopher Sam Harris compared Trump to an asteroid hurtling towards Earth? Rhetoric like that, unhinged through and through, has consequences. So at the very least there is a certain amount of hypocrisy in a good few Democrats (including in the legacy press) now claiming to be shocked – shocked, I tell you! – about this shooting.

Last point. I’ve had bets with three or four people around the globe for over a year now with me betting that Trump would win this November’s election. Each is for a nice bottle of wine. Lately the polls had made me more and more confident so I offered each of them the chance to double the bet. Alas, none took me up on it. But now that photo of Trump after the assassination attempt, blood on his face with the defiant look and the fist clenched, well, I think the election is over. Trump will win (assuming he makes it to then). That photo is iconic. And the Trump response after nearly being shot revealed the fighting character we Trump supporters like. Of course, nothing in life is certain but if I’m right about this you’ll see two things. Democrat money will gradually be pulled from the presidential race and more and more of it used to try to bolster Senate and House of Representative races. The Democrat nightmare is that the Republicans win the trifecta – Presidency, Senate and House. (I think they will cash that relatively rare ticket, not least because the Senate map for this year is incredibly kind to the Republicans. We’ll see.) The second thing that happens is that it locks Biden in as the nominee. If it becomes clear that Trump will win then you might as well not try to be the nominee who gets steamrollered. Let Biden take the fall. Save your bid for 2028.

But for raw luck – or was it perhaps the Hand of God? – we almost had an Ides of July in the USA. That near miss will have gigantic consequences all of its own.