I’ve said it before, but Albo really has a way with words. You know the sort of thing: good is bad, hatred is love, protection is competition. You have to understand that the world has changed and everyone is subsidising like crazy. So, we have to do it too. As economist Richard Holden has observed, it’s the typical response of a young child explaining their bad behaviour. ‘They started it.’
What is it with this government? You might think the senior ministers would want to pause to take a breath while observing the damage they have already wrought. But just like the Energiser bunny, there is no stopping this lot from imposing even more damaging policies while they sit on the government benches.
The latest wheeze is the Future Made in Australia suite of policies, backed up by billions of dollars to be handed out to mendicant players in the private sector whose projects don’t stack up without this sort of injection of taxpayer funds.
But here’s the thing: the only group of people saying good things about the Future Made in Australia brain-snap are these grasping business types, including the spivs from the private equity world. Gosh, add in a few billion dollars of free money from the government and those spreadsheets really sing.
But the list of those who have publicly declared this to be stupid policy include all sensible economists as well as former chairs and the current chair of the Productivity Commission.
I dip my lid to Danielle Wood, the current chair, for publicly warning about the policy, including the cost of making mistakes and the difficulties of exiting projects. She even spoke about the misallocation of resources to politically preferred projects.
This took real courage given the recency of her appointment by this government. Her criticism must have been a blow to Jimbo who has principal carriage of the policy, including its funding. (More on Jimbo below.)
Unsurprisingly, the outstanding former chair of the Productivity Commission, Gary Banks, didn’t have any kind words to say about the policy. Albo gave a very sophisticated response by declaring that Banks obviously believes the Earth is flat. Gosh, that hurts… or not.
Then along comes Bernie Fraser, former Treasury secretary and former governor of the Reserve Bank. Also known as the ‘Sandman impersonator’ thanks to the monotone TV commercials he made on behalf of the union industry super funds, Fraser has well-known left-wing leanings going way back. In other words, a friend of Labor.
But when asked his opinion of the government’s Future Made in Australia initiative, he responded in the following way: ‘My observation over decades is that when governments try to pick winners… they have a pretty poor record.’
He even threw in that the government were ‘overstepping their capabilities’ by selecting the sectors requiring more investment. ‘Taking a lead and identifying all these possibilities is a bit risky for taxpayers and their money,’ according to Bernie.
We are at the point where, apart from those with snouts in the trough, there is no one of any standing with a good word to say about the disaster waiting to happen when this policy is implemented. There are also some serious warnings about the impact of the policy on inflation and the consequent delay to any cut to the cash rate that the Reserve Bank might make.
But rather than think again, Jimbo our Treasurer has come out fighting, declaring that the naysayers haven’t recognised that the world has changed. ‘The world is changing, the pace of that change is accelerating, there are opportunities here not just risks, and we need a bigger slice of the action for our workers, businesses and investors so we can grow our economy and lift living standards into the future.’ (You could almost set those words to music.)
Jimbo worries about rising China, geopolitical tensions and lots of countries getting on board with active industry policy. But we need not fear – actually, be very afraid – because ‘our work will be responsible and methodical, and guided by where we can be more competitive, where it contributes to an orderly path to net zero, where it builds the capabilities of our people and regions, where it makes us more secure, and where it boosts the private sector and delivers value for money.’ Sure, Jimbo.
We are expected to believe that Future Made in Australia is, ‘not a return to the approaches of the distant past, it’s about giving ourselves the right tools and the right settings to meet future challenges. Protectionism was about building walls, this is about building foundations. We want to build competitiveness and productivity, not underwrite profits.’ (Who writes this guff? Some recent arts graduate, I suspect.)
All fine words, some might think, but as they say that don’t butter the parsnips. But evidently, ‘There are important opportunities in areas such as refining and processing critical minerals, moving up the value chain of battery production, renewable hydrogen and green metals.’ This is actually quite hilarious for those who know anything about these things.
Refining and processing are both extremely energy-intensive and damaging to the local environment. They also flourish where labour costs are low. Australia is one of the least-suited countries in the world and the only reason that the possibility is raised is because the resources sit under our land.
But just witness what has happened to the nickel industry. With Chinese finance, Indonesia has taken the lead on processing nickel with new technology that is very energy-intensive and where the environmental effects are largely ignored. Indonesia has also built some new coal-fired electricity plants to support the industry. And we are expected to believe that Australia has a future in this stuff?
Mind you, I do get a laugh at what has happened with the CHIPS and Science Act in the US. Many billions of dollars – real ones, US ones – have been allocated to subsidise the manufacture of semiconductors in the US given the country’s vulnerability to supply chain interruptions. (Taiwan dominates the semiconductor market.) But lots of woke conditions have been attached to the grants, particularly in terms of ‘diversity, equity and inclusion’ requirements for the workers.
Companies that are interested have simply not been able to make this work. Recently, a cohort of workers from Taiwan was recruited but this was found to be unacceptable in terms of meeting the conditions of the legislation. Good one, Joe, I say. It’s better to get your priorities straight before embarking on a Made in America policy initiative.
A small open economy like Australia will never be well-served by policies that seek to match the subsidies handed out by the big boys. We are better off simply to buy the output of those subsidised activities and concentrate on making Australia a competitive country for all businesses.
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